Total And Player Prop For Game 3 Of NLCS

Dodgers vs. Mets, 8:08 ET

Dodgers vs. Mets, 8:08 ET

I haven’t done a great job over the past week making correct predictions of baseball games’ end results. However, I have done a nice job of finding winners for us on the diamond when it comes to player props the last two days. On Monday, I took Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases, and that cashed at +145. Yesterday, I took Jose Ramirez over 1.5 total bases, and a ninth-inning homer cashed that at +140 for us. Those were both in the American League though, and now the schedule shifts back over to the National League as the Dodgers and Mets look to take a lead in the series.

The Dodgers came into the postseason with 98 wins, but I can’t say that they were a team that had no issues. Los Angeles never had a concern on the offensive side of the game. With Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani in your lineup, there is very little reason to be concerned about hitting ever. Even an aging, and what looks to be ailing, Freddie Freeman is making an impact. Combine the other strong bats in the lineup, and opposing pitchers can’t really afford to make a mistake. The problem all along – even in the regular season – was a lack of starting pitching. However, in the playoffs, they don’t even have their best pitcher, Tyler Glasnow. The two most reliable starters, Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, are both pitching well, but entering the postseason, it was a bit of a question mark about how they would perform. Their bullpen was lights out for a few games, but were rocked from the first at-bat in Game 2 of the NLCS. Today we have Walker Buehler on the hill for the Dodgers. I was extremely high on Buehler year’s back thinking that he would be the Cy Young. He certainly has the stuff to dominate any opponent. However, he wasn’t very sharp this season, going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He faced the Padres in the NLDS and allowed six earned runs over five innings. All six runs came in one inning, so maybe if he can avoid that, the Dodgers can navigate through this game. He has allowed 21 hits in 80 at-bats. Pete Alonso has hit him fairly well, 5-for-14 against him with four homers. 

Jul 20, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA;  New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) throws against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets are not a team that anyone truly expected to be here. Sure, after their midseason turnaround there were enough signs indicating that the team was going to make the playoffs, but they had to fight and claw their way into the playoffs. New York had to travel to Milwaukee to win against one of the most consistent teams in baseball. They won in three games. Then they had to face the Phillies, arguably the best team in baseball this season. They beat them in four games. Francisco Lindor has been one of the best players in baseball for months now and continues to be the engine that drives the Mets. I was concerned that the mid-level starters that comprised their rotation wouldn’t be able to deal with great offenses, but the Mets offense has been better. Today they look to take a lead behind the arm of Luis Severino. For the season, Severino went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. None of these numbers were great, but they were good enough for a second starter in the rotation. He has made two starts in the playoffs, and both were quality starts. Severino has allowed 23 hits in 98 at-bats to Dodgers hitters. Ohtani and Betts are both solid against him, but no one else really stands out. 

This game doesn’t have the makings of a scoreless affair. I think that Buehler will likely allow a few runs and I expect the same out of Severino. My expectation in this one is that the teams will combine for a decent amount of runs. I am going to take the over in this game. I do lean toward the Dodgers winning this with a bit of the zig-zag idea here, but it isn’t confident enough to bet, back over 7.5 instead. I like Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases at +135 as well. 

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