Prop Play For Game 1 Of ALCS

Guardians vs. Yankees, 7:38 ET

Guardians vs. Yankees, 7:38 ET

I’ve talked a lot about expectations over the season, and how various teams have different levels of expectations. For example, we had some teams that should be happy to have made the playoffs at all (like the Tigers and Royals) and we had some teams that anything less than a World Series appearance is a failure (Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees). Tonight, two teams with different expectations start off in the American League Championship Series tonight as the Guardians take on the Yankees. 

The Guardians may not have the expectation that they should be competing for a World Series, but make no mistake the team certainly deserves to be in this series. Most of the season, Cleveland was one of the better teams in the game. They’ve been fairly average on the road, but great in Cleveland and it drove them to a record of 92-69, behind only the Yankees in the American League. While they don’t have the national coverage or the name recognition that their counterparts have, they do have a team that can hit and pitch well enough to carry them really far this season. If the Guardians fail here though, it won’t be a letdown. It will be considered a successful season. Tonight, in order to start the series out right for them, Alex Cobb takes the hill. Cobb had a nice few – literally, three – games before the playoffs. The team has to have a ton of faith in him to be a dominant starter because he really doesn’t have much experience. He did have one playoff start already against the Tigers and it was okay. He went three innings, allowed three hits, and two earned runs. The problem was the Guardians gave him no offensive support. The Yankees have faced Cobb a reasonable number of times and have hit .288 against him. Specifically, Juan Soto has destroyed him, hitting 7-for-11 with two homers and a double against him. 

Sep 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, middle, celebrates with players after the Guardians beat the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. The Guardians clinched a playoff berth with the win. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Yankees, every year seemingly, have the expectation that they are going to contend for a title. As a fan, it has to be both wonderful and frustrating. Knowing your team has high expectations also means that you’ll be disappointed when they fall short. This team is built to contend though and they are handling business to this point in the playoffs. It was just one playoff series, but it wasn’t too stressful against the Royals. To Kansas City’s credit, they never gave up. The Yankees, however, also never cracked under the pressure and advanced to this series. Their lineup is filled with great hitters, but good pitching can neutralize that for a game or a series. Will the Yankees pitching hold up in the playoffs? Tonight they put Carlos Rodon on the mound. As big of a supporter of Rodon as I have been, even I recognize that he has fallen short of expectations. For the season, he was decent with a 16-9 record, 3.96 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP. However, he was rocked a bit in his first start in the playoffs, he allowed four earned runs in 3.2 innings. He didn’t face the Guardians this season, but he has only faced two of them a reasonable number of times – Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez. They are 12-for-53 combined against him, and the rest of the Guardians are 1-for-9. 

This game has the potential to be a high-scoring game. Rodon isn’t pitching very well, and Cobb hasn’t shown a ton of success against the Yankees hitters. I think the Yankees win, but you don’t need me to tell you to bet on a -165 favorite. I’m going to put some money on a player prop today, with Juan Soto. I think he records 2+ bases in this one at +145. His history against Cobb gives me hope. He hit 4-for-14 with a double in the series against the Royals, but is hitting .440 overall against the Guardians pitching. I also lean toward the over 7.5. 

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