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I was shocked when I saw the Buffalo Bills (3-2) open up as -2.5 road favorites when they visit the New York Jets (2-3) on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6. Since then, the line has come down and the Bills are only -1/-1.5 favorites across the board. But, still, the sportsbooks are begging for Jets’ money by making them a home underdog.  

Sure, Buffalo has a better record, and there is turmoil in New York. Allegedly, either Aaron Rodgers pushed Jets’ owner Woody Johnson to fire former head coach Robert Saleh, or Johnson went rogue, firing Saleh without communicating with the front office because his British buddies teased him after losing 23-17 to the Minnesota Vikings in London last week. 

Yet, the Bills lost back-to-back games to the Baltimore Ravens, 35-10, in Week 4 and the Houston Texans, 23-20, in Week 5. Plus, the betting market usually backs teams getting a Dead Cat Bounce, which is slang for a team being motivated after their coach gets canned. More importantly, NYJ has one of the best defenses in the league and talented offensive personnel. 

So, why is Buffalo the favorite here? Well, instead of making myself crazy by trying to reverse-engineer the spread, I’ll just fade the Jets. As I prefaced in my Circa Million VI picks article for NFL Week 6, the Jets are a stupid organization making stupid decisions. The Bills have been a Super Bowl contender for years with a proven head coach and top-three quarterback. 

Best Bet: Buffalo Bills moneyline (-116) at FanDuel 

The Dead Cat Bounce is “baked into the line” nowadays. This used to be a sharp handicapping angle. But, now everyone knows teams usually respond to their coaches getting fired. I’m in group chats with homies who don’t gamble nearly as much as I do, and they are referencing New York’s coaching change as motivation. 

Furthermore, there is a better chance that NYJ’s defense comes out flat than it gets up for this game. Since 2021, the Jets have been the best defense in the NFL under Saleh and many of their players have gotten raises over that span. However, their head coach got fired because the offense sucks. If I was a NYJ defender, I’d be pissed. 

Also, if you think Saleh is New York’s biggest problem, you’re an idiot. Rodgers has happy feet in the pocket and gets rid of the ball quickly because his old a** is afraid of being hit. Hitching your wagon to a 40-year-old QB who has sucked for three years is organizational malfeasance. But, the Jets are going to Jets, I guess. 

Meanwhile, the Bills would’ve been in a Super Bowl recently if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes and head coach Sean McDermott deserves credit for Josh Allen becoming an MVP contender. People are ripping McDermott’s decision-making at the end of that Houston game. Those people are speaking out of both sides of their mouths. 

In one breath, they knock Bengals head coach Zac Taylor for calling three runs in Cincinnati’s overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. In the next breath, McDermott is dumb for dialing up three pass plays when Buffalo was backed up against its goal line. Both things can’t be true, and I like McDermott’s decision to put the ball in Allen’s hands at the end of the game. 

The Buffalo Bills are beating the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Buffalo Bills are beating the New York Jets on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

These are the same people who clowned McDermott for firing former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey mid-season last year despite the offense scoring points. No one walked back their criticisms of McDermott when Buffalo won the final six games of its season before losing a heartbreaker to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 in the 2023-24 AFC divisional round. 

Ultimately, I’m “buying the dip” in McDermott’s stock. The Bills have the better quarterback and coach and aren’t afraid to play in MetLife Stadium. Moreover, the “Jets +2.5” is seen as a sharp, contrarian bet, but the public made a killing last week. Road favorites are 8-0 straight up and vs. the spread so far in Week 6. 

Finally, re-hatching the idea of “Buffalo -2.5” being a fishy line, the Bills opened as -2.5 favorites vs. the Texans two weeks ago and Houston is better than New York. Buffalo was -2.5 road favorites in New York for Monday Night Football in Week 1 last season, and that was a better Bills team. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Jets 20 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.