Third-Party Defections to Jill Stein Lead to Trump Polling Higher Than

New data from the swing state of Michigan, the home of the Muslim enclave of Dearborn, reveals the sheer scale of Kamala Harris’ struggle to attract Muslim voters.

A survey of Muslim voters in the Great Lake State found that just 12% intended to vote for the Vice President in the upcoming election. Two-fifths declared their intention to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, whom some Democrats fear could cost Harris her chance at the presidency.

Remarkably, Muslim voters are even more likely to vote for Donald Trump than Harris, with 18% of those surveyed stating the Republican is their preferred candidate. This is despite controversial travel bans implemented during the Trump administration that were hysterically described in the media as “Muslim bans.”

Of course, Trump’s travel ban and the reporting on it damaged his already slim popularity among Muslims voters. However, many are also frustrated with the Biden-Harris administration’s response to conflict in the Middle East, where Israel has launched ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.

The latest data suggests Stein is likely to pick up the pieces from a demographic which is frustrated with the two leading political candidates. Alternatively, others may choose to simply abstain. We saw plenty of that during the 2024 Democratic primary when Democrats were still pretending Biden would be their nominee. In Dearborn, 75% of Democrat primary votes were for “uncommitted.”

As John King said in reporting at the time: “This is just the city of Dearborn, but that is the biggest pocket of the Muslim American, the Arab-American population. This is a place President Biden carried big time in 2020. This is key to his chances of defeating Donald Trump in Michigan.” He added: “In the city, we were looking at most closely for how mad people are at the president. That’s a very significant number out of Dearborn. There are about 300,000 people who live in the state whose family roots tie back to the Middle East region.” He also explained that the largest numbers of uncommitted voters were in areas with higher Muslim populations.

The effect of these abstentions was such; Trump got 756,636 votes in the Michigan Republican primary, while Biden got 618,115 in the Democrat primary. In 2020, Trump got 650,552 votes in the Michigan Republican primary (a 16.3% increase in 2024), while Biden got 840,360 in the Democrat primary (decreasing 26.4% in 2024). And if they view Harris and Biden as one in the same, we can expect more of this on election day.

Speculation was rife on social media as to what the polling data meant for the upcoming election.