NY Times: Republicans Probably Going to Win the Senate

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This isn’t exactly news at this point but the NY Times has a new poll out today which pretty much confirms what we already knew. The Senate is about to turn red and there doesn’t seem to be any real hope for the Democrats to change that at this point.

Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Senator Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for re-election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Tester, who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is winning over moderate and independent voters and running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. But as of now, that does not appear to be enough to survive in Montana, a conservative state where former President Donald J. Trump is ahead by 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate hangs in the balance.

Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessman and a former Navy SEAL who has never held public office, leads Mr. Tester 52 percent to 44 percent, the poll shows. Mr. Sheehy’s lead is a seven-point advantage without rounding.

Again, we’ve seen some polling evidence it was headed this way more than a month ago, so this isn’t a new development. With the narrow lead Democrats currently have in the Senate, they can only afford to lose one seat if they win the White House. But that seat in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, looks like a given. That means the looming Tester loss is the ballgame unless Democrats can flip a GOP seat somewhere else.

The only two places that seems remotely possible are Texas and Florida, but the new poll released today had bad news for Dems on both fronts. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott is leading his opponent by 9 points and in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz is leading his Democratic challenger by 4 points, 48-44. So unless we get a really nasty October surprise in one of those races, this is over.

Nate Cohn, who writes about polling for the Times, says as much in a separate column today.

The math for Senate control is pretty simple. For Democrats, it isn’t adding up…

Before today, Democrats led nearly every Times/Siena poll of the contested Senate races for months, including in Ohio — where Sherrod Brown led by four points in a state Donald J. Trump won by eight four years ago. A positive Montana result for Democrats would have kept that string going, giving them a path to Senate control. They didn’t get it.

Schadenfreude is a dangerous game to play, especially in an election that hasn’t happened yet. That’s my way of saying I really through about not looking at the comments, knowing they would be full of miserable Democrats screaming at the clouds. But in the end I couldn’t resist.

I will never understand how anyone can cast a vote for Rick Scott or Ted Cruz.

It’s not that hard to understand. Some people would rather live in Texas or Florida than California, and for good reason. I say that as someone who lives in California.

Well this is discouraging news. If Harris wins, but the GOP takes the Senate and holds the House, they’ll block the Dems at every turn. Like they did with Obama. These republicans seem genuinely uninterested in doing the people’s work. Frustrating.

A man writes in to say.