At These Odds, Bet New York Yankees To Beat Kansas City Royals In Game 3 Of

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PublishedOctober 9, 2024 4:37 PM EDT|UpdatedOctober 9, 2024 4:37 PM EDT

The New York Yankees (1-1) and Kansas City Royals (1-1) split the first two games of their 2024 American League Division Series. New York won the series opener 6-5 Saturday and Kansas City evened the series with a 4-2 victory Monday. The ALDS heads to Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City for Games 3-4.

NYY are slight favorites at -115 across the board for Game 3 Wednesday, the Royals are priced at -105, and a total of 8. For what it’s worth, FOX Sports betting insider Patrick Everson posted on X at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday that Kansas City is getting 54% of the bets and two-thirds of the money on ESPN Bet.

This is a huge discount for the Yankees, who had an average line of -152 in their seven regular-season meetings with the Royals in 2024. New York was 6-3 in those games, out-scoring Kansas City by 18 runs (42-24). Plus, NYY owned the AL Central this season, going 24-7 with a +2.4 per-game scoring margin.

The Yankees give RHP Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) the start for Game 3, and the Royals counter with All-Star RHP Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA). Schmidt is 0-4 in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 38/15 K/BB rate. Lugo is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 41/6 K/BB rate over his last seven starts.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt warms up against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)

However, when you dig into their underlying pitching metrics, Schmidt has an edge in several predictive stats. According to FanGraphs, Schmidt has a much better “Stuff+” (116-97) than Lugo. Also, he has a better expected batting average, K%, barrel rate, and whiff rate, per Statcast.

Furthermore, these starters have weird home-away reverse splits. Schmidt has a better ERA (4.50-1.39) and WHIP (1.25-1.13) on the road and has given up 13 fewer home runs (20-7) away from Yankee Stadium. Lugo has a worse ERA (3.36-2.62), WHIP (1.14-1.03), and K/BB rate (4.26-3.32) on the road.

Nevertheless, starting pitching has become less relevant in baseball. Instead, relief pitching is more important and the Yankees have a better bullpen. All five of their most-pitched relievers have a lower WHIP than all of KC’s five most-used relievers. New York’s bullpen has a better ERA and K-BB% as well.

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge swings at pitch vs. Kansas City Royals in Game t2 of the 2024 ALDS at Yankee Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge swings at pitch vs. Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of the 2024 ALDS at Yankee Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

Also, the Yankees have been hitting better in the fall and are more productive vs. righties. Since September, the Royals are dead last in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA, and 28th in WAR, according to FanGraphs. New York’s lineup led MLB in wRC+ and wOBA against right-handed pitching and Kansas City is around league-average in both.

Finally, we are getting a discount on the Yankees because future 2024 AL MVP, Aaron Judge, is struggling at the plate and Lugo pitched in the 2024 MLB All-Star Game whereas Schmidt is a “middle of the rotation” starter. But, Kansas City backed into the playoffs and New York is better at starting and relief pitching and batting.