Axios: Vance Crossed Everyone Up By Being … Human

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Alternate headline: Vance Didn’t Play Nice — Refused to Adopt Media Caricature.

J.D. Vance’s demeanor on stage in the Vice Presidential debate on Tuesday could not have surprised anyone that has watched him before and/or after entering politics. Heck, it didn’t differ at all in tone or style from his acceptance speech at the RNC national convention in August. While the media has tried to keep Vance on the defensive for some controversial comments he’s made in the past, Vance has never come across as a “fire breather” on stage.

The media certainly has painted Vance that way, however. And perhaps the real takeaway from this Axios scooplet is that Tim Walz and his campaign are dumb enough to buy into it:

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) went into the vice-presidential debate with a plan to surprise Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz by being shockingly … super-duper nice.

Why it matters: It worked. The result was a refreshingly substantive, even cheery debate — a flashback to a less polarized America, and a preview of what’s possible if the nation’s current rage subsides. But it was a premeditated political maneuver to rattle Walz.

Soooo … the strategy to ‘rattle Walz’ involved being nice to him? Treating him graciously, even while disagreeing? Doing the traditional job of running mates by attacking the opposing presidential nominee while defending your own?

That describes the strategy, as an anonymous Vance source tells Axios, but not the effect:

“We had an intentional strategy of not being overly adversarial and aggressive and jumping down Walz’s throat on every little thing,” the Vance adviser added.

• “It looks petty. … Fundamentally, no one gives a s–t about the VPs. JD knew instinctively that what would actually move the ball forward is creating the contrast between Trump’s successes and Kamala’s failures.”

That strategy has little to do with Walz at all. It is, in fact, the traditional role of running mates. For that matter, Walz pursued the same strategy. Most of his criticisms were directed at Donald Trump, and only involved Vance to the extent that Vance continued to defend Trump, especially on the 2020 election challenges and January 6. Walz attempted to pursue the same disqualification strategy that Joe Biden used for months on Trump and that Kamala Harris has adopted since — and which hasn’t worked at all.

The only real difference between the two men on stage Tuesday is that one was sooooo much better at it, and you could watch the other realize it in real time.

The bigger strategy here was anticipating the DQ strategy and defusing it. Vance certainly could have targeted Walz more, and perhaps even Kamala more. But as the adviser says, running mates really only matter as reflections of the presidential nominees. The best strategy to employ in VP debates is to project an air of confidence, competence, optimism, and coolness under pressure, in an effort to make voters more comfortable with the ticket as a whole. That may have involved being gracious and friendly to a certain degree, but only as it served to instill confidence in the GOP ticket, especially contrasted to the panic and hyperbole of the Democrats when it comes to claiming the sky is falling on democracy right now. 

The real problem isn’t that Vance somehow deked Walz by being, well, himself. Walz made himself the problem by making it very clear in his bug-eyed and panicked performance that he can’t maintain composure or adjust to events in real time. Throughout the debate, the contrast could not have been starker between an obviously comfortable and confident Vance, and an equally uncomfortable and frantic Walz. 

As I remarked in last night’s Final Word, the VP debate essentially reflects the judgment of the bosses. As corporate analysts will testify, A’s hire A’s, and B’s hire C’s … and D’s. Vance came across as an A, someone ready for the job, and suited for it temperamentally and intellectually. Walz came across as someone who may have crammed at the last minute in hopes for a default win over a media caricature rather than his actual opponent. And that had little to do with Vance’s strategy but in Harris’ incompetence for choosing him in the first place.