Fade The Inflated Total For Lions And Cardinals

Lions vs. Cardinals, 4:25 ET

Lions vs. Cardinals, 4:25 ET

The football season is taking shape, and I need some thoughts from the loyal Outkick readers. I spent a lot of time this baseball season talking about the playoffs. Sometimes even in April discussing what it would take or concerns for getting to October baseball. I recently saw that there are now playoff predictors for the NFL even after just Week 1 it was out. Can we really, accurately, say that some team will make or not make the playoffs after just two games? I’m not looking forward to the end of football, it just got here! What do you think? Let me know with a message via X. In the meantime, let’s put a play on the total in the game between the Lions and the Cardinals. 

The Lions are one of the better offenses in the NFL. Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford (even though Stafford is better) doesn’t look quite so bad now. The Lions have weapons at all the skill positions, including one of the better receivers in the league, Amon-Ra St. Brown. Their backfield has a great one-two punch with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Even Sam LaPorta provides a good over-the-middle target and solid safety net option for Goff. Through two games, the team is averaging 21 points per game and 421 yards per game. That’s good for second in the league. However, they’ve only scored 43 points which is about middle of the pack. It isn’t that they are turning the ball over, it is that they just aren’t getting far enough downfield to convert to touchdowns. They’ve only scored four touchdowns in two games, which isn’t exactly underperforming, but it also doesn’t put them anywhere near the best in the league. The Lions also have started the season in the comfort of their own home and are now traveling for the first time this season. The Arizona defense isn’t one that I have ranked as a top unit in the league, but they certainly looked good against a Rams team that either wasn’t prepared or was taken out of the game very early. 

Lions QB Jared Goff makes a pass vs. the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field in Detroit. (Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK)

Speaking of the Cardinals, their team has looked good on offense. For the season, they are up near the top of the league in touchdowns scored with eight total. However, two of them have come via special teams and their defense, so not something you can really count on. Kyler Murray has looked great so far. He is 38-for-52 on the season with 428 yards and four touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. looked like a true WR1 in the game against the Rams, racking up yards and hauling in two touchdowns in the first quarter. Before we get too excited, it was actually a quiet day for him outside of that first quarter, and he only caught one pass for four yards on three targets against the Bills. I think we are going to see a bit of regression here though. The Lions won’t allow much running room for James Conner who has looked great in two games, going for 172 yards and two touchdowns on 37 carries. The Cardinals passing game has shown promise right now, but expect Murray to be contained, and although the Lions can be prone to some bonehead plays, the secondary should be good enough to contain the majority of looks from the Cardinals.

I’m going to play the under 51.5 in this game for a few reasons. First, I think the Lions, going on the road, are likely to be a bit more conservative with their approach and I think they will start slowly. Second, the Cardinals have been playing too well and will regress a bit here. Third, 14 of the Cardinals 69 points this season have not been from the offense. So we are looking at two offenses that combine to average 47 points per game. The Lions defense is good, and Murray will eventually make mistakes. The Cardinals defense is okay, and Goff has already been picked off three times. I’ll back the under. 

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