NFL Mid-Week 2 Odds Report: Heavy Line Movement For Bears-Texans, Browns-Jaguars

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One of the most important parts of my process for handicapping NFL games is analyzing line movement throughout the week. Between injuries, “sharp betting action”, or weather, several things can shift the odds for an NFL game. 

For the record, the “look-ahead line” is the odds that DraftKings first released this past summer. The “Week 2 opener” are the lines listed after Week 1’s Sunday games. The “current odds” are self-explanatory. Here’s a look at where the market sits on the 15 non-Thursday night football games for Week 2. 

NFL Week 2 Line Movement

The ‘current odds’ are courtesy of Pregame.com as of 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, September 12.  

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens 

• Look-ahead line: Ravens -7, 44.5
• Week 2 opener: Ravens -8.5, 42.5
• Current odds: Ravens -8.5, 41.5

After flirting with -10 earlier this week, Baltimore’s spread is stuck at the Week 2 opening line. The total is down by a point because of the offensive egg laid by the Raiders last week. 

Las Vegas travels to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff and Baltimore has extra rest. But, this information was known when the look-ahead line was posted this summer. Hence, the Ravens are a bigger favorite due to public perception. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers 

• Look-ahead line: Chargers -5, 43.5
• Week 2 opener: Chargers -5.5, 39.5
• Current odds: Chargers -6, 38.5

Given how bad Carolina looked in Week 1, losing 47-10 to the New Orleans Saints, I’m surprised Los Angeles isn’t a touchdown-favorite. Also, according to Pregame.com, the Chargers are getting roughly 75% of the bets as of Thursday, September 12. 

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys 

• Look-ahead line: Cowboys -6, 44.5
• Week 2 opener: Cowboys -6.5, 45.5
• Current odds: Cowboys -6, 47

After NOLA’s offensive outburst in Week 1, the total has seen the most movement for the Saints-Cowboys betting markets. Dallas beating the Cleveland Browns 33-17 also helps. Predictably, four out of five bets are on the Cowboys as of Thursday, per Pregame.com. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions 

• Look-ahead line: Lions -6, 48.5
• Week 2 opener: Lions -6.5, 48.5
• Current odds: Lions -7.5, 51.5

Cluster injuries to Tampa Bay’s secondary explain why Detroit is now -7.5 and the total is up three points from the opener. The Buccaneers could be without four defensive backs against one of the best offenses in the NFL in Week 2, including Pro Bowl S Antoine Winfield Jr. 

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers 

• Look-ahead line: Packers -4, 47
• Week 2 opener: Colts -2.5, 41.5
• Current odds: Colts -2.5, 41

Apparently, the market thinks Packers QB Jordan Love is worth 6.5 points to the spread. Love is doubtful for Sunday after suffering a sprained MCL in Green Bay’s 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil in Week 1. Gun to my head, I’d take the points with the Packers because they are 22-11 vs. the spread under head coach Matt LaFleur. 

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars 

• Look-ahead line: Jaguars -1, 45
• Week 2 opener: Jaguars -3, 44
• Current odds: Jaguars -3, 41

This is a reaction, or overreaction in my humble opinion, to Dallas’s drubbing of Cleveland Sunday. Jacksonville covered as +3.5 underdogs in a 20-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. But, the Dolphins won with their C+ to B- game and this is a good “buy low” spot for the Browns. 

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings 

• Look-ahead line: Niners -6, 46.5
• Week 2 opener: Niners -5, 45.5
• Current odds: Niners -5, 46

The Niners clubbed the New York Jets 32-19 on Monday Night Football and Minnesota punked the New York Giants 28-6 the day prior. The lack of line movement is suspicious given the one-sided betting action on San Francisco, per Pregame.com. For what it’s worth, the Vikings upset San Francisco 22-17 last year. 

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots 

• Look-ahead line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5
• Week 2 opener: Seahawks -4, 41
• Current odds: Seahawks -3.5, 38

The biggest movement in Seahawks-Patriots is the total dropping three points. Seattle’s defense should improve under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald and New England has the worst skill-position players in the NFL. 

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans 

• Look-ahead line: Jets -4, 43.5
• Week 2 opener: Jets -4, 41.5
• Current odds: Jets -4, 41

There’s been minimal line movement since both teams lost and failed to cover the spread in Week 1. The Titans lost without giving up an offensive touchdown and the Jets got truck-sticked by the Niners. 

New York Giants at Washington Commanders 

• Look-ahead line: Commanders -3, 42.5
• Week 2 opener: Commanders -2.5, 42.5
• Current odds: Commanders -1, 43

I’d assume sharp money is bringing New York from a +2.5 underdog to +1. I mean, who is betting the Giants after their no-show at home against the Vikings last week? Granted, the Commanders are bad and got whooped by the Bucs last week. But, NYG looks like a dumpster fire after their season opener. 

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals 

• Look-ahead line: Rams -1, 46
• Week 2 opener: Rams -1.5, 49.5
• Current odds: Cardinals -1, 47.5

This is another injury-based line move and certainly not anything Arizona did right in Week 1. The Cardinals lost to the Buffalo Bills 34-28 Sunday and the Rams lost at the Detroit Lions 26-20 in overtime. However, Los Angeles sent WR Puka Nacua to the IR earlier this week and could be without four starting offensive linemen. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos 

• Look-ahead line: Steelers -3, 41.5
• Week 2 opener: Steelers -2.5, 39.5
• Current odds: Steelers -2.5, 36.5

The total is falling because Pittsburgh’s defense played like its hair was on fire in an 18-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix looked over his skis. But, the line movement isn’t based on new information, just skepticism of both offenses. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs 

• Look-ahead line: Chiefs -4.5, 48.5
• Week 2 opener: Chiefs -6.5, 47.5
• Current odds: Chiefs -5.5, 48.5

Even though the Bengals continued their multi-year trend of getting off to a slow start, the line is moving toward Cincinnati. My guess for this is the Chiefs struggling to cover spreads larger than -3.5 historically and Joe Burrow‘s 3-1 career record vs. Kansas City.  

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans 

• Look-ahead line: Texans -3, 47
• Week 2 opener: Texans -5.5, 46.5
• Current odds: Texans -6.5, 45.5

This is the biggest non-injury-related line move in Week 2 after Chicago beat Tennessee without scoring an offensive touchdown. Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams threw for fewer than 100 yards and Texans QB C.J. Stroud picked up right where he left off last week. 

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles 

• Look-ahead line: Eagles -3.5, 48.5
• Week 2 opener: Eagles -5.5, 48.5
• Current odds: Eagles -6.5, 47

Hopefully, the line movement toward Philly is the market realizing Falcons QB Kirk Cousins usually puts up duds in primetime games. Most of that movement is a downgrade for an Atlanta offense that scored just 10 points at home against Pittsburgh last week. 

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