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Former President Donald Trump will head into Tuesday evening’s debate with Vice President Kamala Harris in a much better position, polling-wise, than he was earlier this summer after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and endorsed her.

On Sunday, The New York Times and Siena College released a new poll that found Trump ahead of Harris by a point — 48-47 percent, well within the margin of error, but much better numbers for the former president than the previous month.

“Mr. Trump may have had a rough month following the president’s departure and amid the burst of excitement that Ms. Harris brought Democrats, but the poll suggests his support remains remarkably resilient,” the Times noted in its report on the results.

In addition, the Times/Siena polling has a history of wildly overestimating support for the Democratic candidate. The same poll for the 2020 presidential election showed Biden with an 11-point lead in Wisconsin; he only won that state by roughly a percentage point. It also had Biden up by a point in Ohio, but Trump won the former battleground state by more than 8 points.

So, given that history—slanting in favor of Democrats—it’s easy to see how Trump could actually be up much more than a single point against Harris, who, for the duration of her term in the Biden-Harris administration, has been one of the most unpopular vice presidents in modern history.

Meanwhile, reputable pollster Nate Silver provided updated data on Monday showing that Trump leads Harris by a decisive 64.4% to 35.3% in the national electoral college estimate, solidifying his increasing momentum as the potential front-runner now for the presidency.

Silver’s probability forecast also has Trump ahead in the important swing states:

–Pennsylvania: Trump 65% – Harris 35%

–Michigan: Trump 55% – Harris 45%

–Wisconsin: Trump 53% – Harris 47%

–Arizona: Trump 77% – Harris 23%

–North Carolina: Trump 76% – Harris 24%

–Georgia: Trump 69% – Harris 31%

–Nevada: Trump 61% – Harris 39%

There are a few possible reasons for Trump’s present lead against Harris in the polls.

His messaging on subjects like crime, border security, and inflation, for starters, has struck a chord with a sizable block of voters. Furthermore, Trump has a clear edge because of his persistent popularity among Republicans and his tight hold on the GOP base. Much of the electorate has remained faithful to Trump, but Harris has found it difficult to win over Democrats with the same fervor.

Markets for political wagering are also beginning to reflect the increasing perception that Trump is winning. Polymarket’s odds show that Trump is currently leading Harris at 52%, with Harris trailing at 46%. These odds offer more information on how people see Trump’s strong position going into the closing weeks of the campaign, even though betting odds are more erratic and subject to change.

Separately, renowned pollster Frank Luntz believes that Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris made some massive mistakes in her CNN interview.

“I was not impressed as an observer and someone who’s expecting more from her with this much time to get prepared,” Luntz said before launching into a rapid-fire list of mistakes he believes Harris made.

“First, and I call it DOD, which is Day One Detail. She gave child tax credits, a housing credit. She should have had something for day one, for the first hour, the first day, the first week, the first month and the first year,” the pollster said. “It’s the most important thing voters are looking for to see whether you’re serious. She really didn’t itemize much more than her talking points.”

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