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A New York Times/Siena College survey that found former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris nationally by a point has led to questions about whether her post-Biden drop-out surge has peaked.

“To me, the result is a bit surprising. It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls,” NY Times chief political analyst Nate Kohn wrote in a Sunday column discussing the results.

“That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks. After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment: an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high; if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention,” he added.

A possible explanation for why the Times/Siena poll might be the first to show a shift back toward Trump is the lack of high-quality surveys conducted since the convention when Ms. Harris was experiencing a surge, Kohn further explained.

While there have been a few online polls this week, no traditional, high-quality surveys with interviews conducted after August 28 have been released, he noted.

“There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr. Trump. We never know whether the polls are “right” until the votes are counted,” noted Kohn. “But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top.”

He also said the Times/Siena survey found that Trump is more popular than previous surveys indicated. “Overall, 46 percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the former president. That’s down a tick from our last national poll, when 47 percent had a favorable view, but it still makes him more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020,” he wrote.

Kohn also said Trump has a five-point lead over Harris on issues that matter most to voters, according to questions they were asked in the survey.

A SuperPAC funded in large part by billionaire Tesla, Starlink, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is preparing to launch a series of digital ads aimed initially at swing state voters in support of Trump, and the messaging is distinct and direct.

“If you sit this election out, Kamala and the crazies will win,” notes one ad on Google’s YouTube, which has been viewed more than three million times. “You will be stuck with higher costs and more illegals invading our country.” It also depicts Trump as an “American Badass,” using imagery of him pumping his first in the air following the July assassination attempt and imploring everyone to “fight, fight, fight!”

“We must STOP Kamala while we can,” reads an America PAC ad on Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook, where Musk’s PAC has placed the vast majority of its digital ad spend. “Arizona families have had ENOUGH of radical liberals.”

Bloomberg News reports that another ad on Facebook includes a voice-over with a Russian accent: “Meet Comrade Kamala,” the 30-second video says. “Ready to bring Soviet Union to Michigan.”

Also on X, one ad recalls how the former president’s political opponents “tried to kick Trump off your ballot” before adding: “They even tried to end his campaign and take him out for good.”

Musk publicly endorsed Trump on July 13, shortly after the assassination attempt on the Republican candidate’s life in Pennsylvania. In addition to pledging millions of dollars to his super PAC, Musk hosted Trump for an extensive campaign event on X and has become one of his most vocal supporters this election cycle.

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