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We’ve been saying for some time now that Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period in the polls would end, and for a while now, we’ve seen her lead shrink in the polling averages and some poor polling for Kamala in battleground states. But a new poll from the New York Times/Siena College shows Trump ahead nationally again. And you can bet the left is flipping out about it.
🇺🇲 National poll by NYT/Siena crosstabs
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
—
Full Ballot
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Crosstabs
• Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-6%
• Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 49-40%
—
• Men:… pic.twitter.com/jtPBwxRIBq— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
“To me, the result is a bit surprising,” writes Nate Cohn of the New York Times, before trying his best to quell panic from the left. “It’s the first lead for Mr. Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.”
Cohn then acknowledges what many of us hawkishly monitoring polls have noticed: there has been a dramatic decline in new polling recently.
That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks. After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment: an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August. It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high; if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention.
There’s also a plausible reason the Times/Siena poll would be the first to capture a shift back toward Mr. Trump: There simply haven’t been many high-quality surveys fielded since the convention, when Ms. Harris was riding high. There was a scattering of online polls this week, but there hasn’t been a traditional high-quality survey with interviews conducted after Aug. 28.
[…]
— Read More: pjmedia.com
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