The House in the Balance? Alaska's At-Large Race Is Now Neck-and-Neck

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While Alaska’s issues are frequently of concern primarily to Alaskans, in 2024, our at-large House of Representatives election is drawing some significant national attention. Why is this? Partly because the balance of the House of Representatives is at stake and that might come down to a few seats. It’s also partly due to the complications ranked-choice voting (RCV) has introduced – and how both parties here in the Great Land are dealing with it.

Must Read Alaska’s Suzanne Downing, as usual, brings some excellent local analysis:

Cook Political Report, which analyzes races across the country, has shifted the Alaska U.S. House race from the “Lean Democrat” category to “Toss Up,” in the latest ranking.

The change explains why Democrats, who have their own polling, are now suing the state Division of Elections to save the Rep. Mary Peltola, who is facing Republican Nick Begich in the general election, in her reelection bid.

Ranked-choice voting has been a real mess here in the Last Frontier; Mary Peltola is in place largely due to this unnecessarily complex and confusing system that violates the principle of “one man, one vote.” But there’s a key difference between this year and the 2020 election, when Republican Nick Begich III and former Republican vice presidential nominee and governor, Sarah Palin squared off against Mary Peltola. This year, the second-place finisher among GOP candidates for the House seat, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom, withdrew after the primary. While other candidates remain on the ticket – despite the efforts of national Democrats to remove them – it’s now a two-candidate race, for all intents and purposes.

Alaska’s seat is just one of several that the GOP is hoping to flip in November, Downing notes:

Along with Peltola now being at risk in the general election, Cook Political Report says that Peltola’s “rural Antifa” colleagues in the House Blue Dog Democrats — Rep. Jared Golden of Maine and Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez of Washington — are also facing tough elections. The new toss-up list for Democrats, per Cook Political Report, is here:

AK-AL Peltola

CO-08 Caraveo

ME-02 Golden

MI-07 OPEN (Slotkin)

MI-08 OPEN (Kildee)

NC-01 Davis

NM-02 Vasquez

OH-13 Sykes

PA-07 Wild

PA-08 Cartwright

WA-03 Perez

The current razor-thin Republican majority in the House must be expanded if a potential second Trump administration has any chance of achieving legislative victories.

Game-Changer: Alaska Republican Dahlstrom Withdraws From House Race, Tipping Election to GOP

As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics averages on these key races are as follows:

AK-AL – Leans Dem (color me extremely skeptical about that.)
CO-08 – Tossup
ME-02 – Tossup
MI-07 – Tossup
MI-08 – Tossup
NC-01 – Tossup
NM-02 – Tossup
OH-13 – Tossup
PA-07 – Tossup
PA-08 – Tossup
WA-03 – Tossup

As far as our election here in the Great Land, it doesn’t look like the Democrats’ national apparatus is doing Mrs. Peltola any favors; as Downing adds:

Working against Peltola is her own party, which has decided to sue to keep another Democrat, Eric Hafner, off of the November ballot. The Alaska Democrats have hired the nation’s top Democrat election lawyer, Marc Elias, known for sowing chaos in elections.

The lawsuit drains enthusiasm from the party and embarrasses its Alaska voting membership, since it makes Peltola look desperate and conniving. Peltola would have most certainly approved the party going forward with the lawsuit that is intended to be her life ring.

We can hope. Alaska’s voters are nothing, however, if not fickle. We saw that demonstrated in 2020 when we had a near-historic low turnout – but there’s something different in 2024. Ranked-choice voting is also on the ballot again, this time to be repealed, and with a bit of luck, that will drive turnout higher.

It’s going to be an interesting sprint to the finish. I’ve spoken with Nick Begich III and have been impressed by his certainty, his convictions, and his intelligence. He’d make a great at-large representative for Alaska. With a decent turnout, a one-on-one race, and a good campaign, we can hope that he will send Mary Peltola back to Bethel.