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Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) was adamant about rejecting a CNN poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Trump in her state.

“It makes me nervous to see any poll that says there’s a five-point lead for Kamala Harris in Michigan now. It’s just not true,” Whitmer said during an appearance Thursday at the Texas Tribune Festival.

“It’s gonna be a very close race. I believe we can win it. And I believe we will, but it’s gonna be very close,” the governor added.

(Video Credit: The Texas Tribune)

According to CNN, Harris holds an advantage over Trump “among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs.”

The network noted that “an average of 15% of likely voters say they have not yet firmly decided their choice,” which means there is room for plenty of fluctuation.

“Likely voters in Wisconsin break 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, and in Michigan, it’s 48% Harris to 43% Trump. In Arizona, Trump lands at 49% to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, 48% back Harris to 47% for Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47%, the network reported.

According to noted elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver, Whitmer may be right.

“Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris,” Silver noted.

He also noted that while the race is still a toss-up, when it comes to the Electoral College Trump is now favored to defeat Harris by the widest margin “since July 30.”

Silver’s forecast model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday, while Harris’ odds have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.

Here’s more from Silver’s model:

Whitmer explained that Michigan is such a swing state because of its diversity.

“One of the wonderful strengths about Michigan and one of the challenges is we are the most diverse swing state in the country,” she said. “Michigan benefited from the auto industry and brought people from the South, from the Middle East- people came from all around the globe for a job on the line at Ford Motor Company or General Motors. And it was a guarantee to the middle class where you could take care of your family, could even buy a place up north because you were paid a salary that can sustain a family and a good quality of life.”

The governor said this is how the state’s population grew over the years — the state’s population has been in a decline since 2020 — before explaining that Michigan is “notoriously kind of independent.”

“And I think that’s a great strength. I think it’s important to have robust dialogue and different points of view,” Whitmer added. “And I think that over the years that has served us well. I do think right now, with all the different pressures that are happening in our political rhetoric and with social media, etc., that it makes it a lot more challenging to find that common ground. And that’s something that I’m concerned about.”

Tom Tillison
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