Larry Hogan May Not Carry Maryland Senate Seat for GOP

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Most of the political media coverage these days remains firmly focused on the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which makes sense because we’re witnessing one of the craziest presidential campaigns in living memory. But there are a number of down-ballot races that are equally interesting and could prove critical over the next two years no matter who takes the White House. There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in November, with some of them largely flying under the media radar. One of the more unique contests is playing out in Maryland, where former Republican Governor Larry Hogan is up against Democrat Angela Alsobrooks. This has frequently been portrayed as one of the GOP’s few (if not only) chances to flip a seat in a deep blue state over to the red column. But according to the latest polling from Patrick Gonzales, the little-known Alsobrooks is currently leading Hogan by five points, so that opportunity may be slipping away. (Baltimore Sun)

Democrat Angela Alsobrooks leads Republican Larry Hogan by 5 percentage points in Maryland’s U.S. Senate race while still remaining unknown to a third of likely voters, a new statewide poll found.

Hogan maintains the kind of broad popularity that he enjoyed during his two terms as governor, and while a fifth of Democrats say they will vote for him, he’d need to pull in a larger share of them in a state packed with Democrats to win in November, according to poll director Patrick Gonzales.

“For a Republican to win statewide in Maryland it always comes down to basic mathematics,” Gonzales wrote in a statement with the results of his statewide poll. “Can Hogan snatch away 30% of the Democratic vote to secure victory on November 5th?”

Back in May, when Hogan won the GOP primary for the Senate race, I wrote about his status as an outlier. You can think of him as a reverse image of Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Manchin has been a Democrat in a very red state who held his office by taking moderate positions and frequently siding with the GOP. Hogan is a Republican but he was a very popular governor in deep-blue Maryland. But running for Governor is very different from running for a seat in the Senate, and that reality may be a leading factor in Hogan’s current trailing numbers.

The poll found that more than one-third of Maryland voters (34%) don’t even know who Angela Alsobrooks is. Conversely, virtually every voter in Maryland recognizes Hogan’s name. Hogan enjoyed broad popularity as Governor, easily winning both of his elections to the state’s highest office. But the Governor only makes decisions impacting state-level issues. Hogan’s policies were mostly indistinguishable from those of a Democrat, to the risks involved in Democrats voting for him were minimal at best. 

The Senate race is a different animal entirely. Any voters who pay even casual attention to national politics are aware that control of the Senate will be vital in terms of the next president either being able to move their agenda forward or seeing it stymied as has largely been the case for Joe Biden since 2021. In other words, a vote for Hogan to take the Senate seat could be a vote for tanking Kamala Harris’ agenda if she is elected President. This appears to be a factor that is already in play. How else do you explain a Democratic candidate with lower name recognition than the local animal control officer clawing her way into a slim but potentially decisive lead?

Back in February of this year, I pointed out how Larry Hogan had probably squandered his best opportunity to continue his political career because of his unrealistic ambitions. If Hogan had made the decision to run for Chris Van Hollen’s seat in 2022, he would have been doing so without the pressure of a tight presidential race weighing him down. Many in the GOP urged him to do precisely that. But Hogan fancied himself a viable presidential candidate for some reason, an effort that quickly blew up in his face. Now, if the current polling proves to be accurate, he could be on his way into an unplanned retirement and he will be remembered as a person who may well have blown his party’s chances at holding a majority in the Senate.