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• I have been saying for more than a year at least that Donald Trump is the dominant political force in the world—full stop. This didn’t automatically mean he would win the election or succeed in office; he could end up like Napoleon. But my second thought, more privately held, was that God and the universe want Trump to be president again. It’s his destiny, and it will not be denied. I note that even David Brooks, recently becoming a more devoutly religious person, said this, even before Trump’s shooting.

• I dissent somewhat from John’s view that J.D. Vance is a disappointing choice for a running mate. He was not my first choice, and I wonder about some of his views, but I think everyone is missing something obvious about picking Vance: It is a major sign that Trump, since he can only serve one more term in office, does not intend to be a lame duck president. Rather than picking someone for conventional reasons of “party unity” or winning a swing state, he chose someone who symbolizes his complete rejection of the old order. As Trump likes to say, we’ll just have to see what happens.

• Roll back the tape to March 30, 1981, when President Reagan also survived the assassin’s bullet by a very narrow margin. It had two immediate effects. First, his bravery and grace under pressure—joking with the doctors, etc.—demonstrated to skeptical Americans that he was not a cardboard or celluloid cutout, or a mere Hollywood totem. Second, it extended his political “honeymoon” period and enabled his success with Congress over the coming months, in part by unifying Republicans behind him. What people forget now is that as of that March 30 day in 1981, Reagan’s economic program was in deep trouble, most especially with key Republican senators including Bob Dole and Pete Domenici. After the shooting, they fell in line, just as nearly all Republicans are right now with Trump. Similarly, as of March 30, 1981, Democrats were preparing to “take the gloves off” and declare Reagan’s honeymoon period to be over. (House Majority Leader Jim Wright was going to give a speech that day or the next to this effect.) That had to be postponed, just as Dem attacks on Trump right now need to be muted. But not for long in Trump’s case.

• The “Dump Biden” juggernaut has ground to a halt. Not clear if it can be started up again, but if Biden makes more catastrophic stumbles they may have no choice. But if he can keep it together, he’ll be the nominee. On Saturday morning I was convinced he was gone, and perhaps soon. By Saturday night it became clear that he’s almost certainly staying, barring some slip-up that is so bad that even his family will tell him it is time to go.

This year’s Democratic convention in Chicago is going to be a thoroughly sad affair no matter what.

• I’ll leave aside for another time discussion of the culpability of leftist rhetoric in creating a “climate of hate” toward Trump. I’ll merely observe that Democratic hatred of Trump has been an order of magnitude greater than their usual hate for any Republican who might beat them in an election. What explains this greater intensity?

It can’t just be because he threatens to beat them, or is politically incorrect. Our pal Glenn Ellmers, writing at Chronicles, has one of his typically recondite insights about the Trump effect on the left, namely, that the unphilosophical Trump has managed to challenge the very core of leftist philosophy in a highly ironic way. Here’s the key paragraph:

Trump’s bombastic candor is actually a deeper form of truth-telling. The secret of his appeal, which the left finds both baffling and infuriating, is found precisely in those sweeping overstatements that are not only legitimate but necessary in our present circumstances. Trump exaggerates because he needs to overcorrect for, and thereby overcome, the daily barrage of official orthodoxy that suffocates our common sense. Ordinary Americans seem to grasp that he amplifies, simplifies, and clarifies because it’s the only way to pierce the relentless propaganda of the establishment.

• Finally (for now) I hate it when I have to keep admitting on our podcast that “Lucretia” is right about something, but here’s 90 seconds of an episode from almost exactly a year ago (July 23, 2023 to be exact), in which Lucretia offers an ominous prediction of what was likely to happen if the lawfare campaign against Trump faltered:

  1. Lucretia July 2023