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I hope you’re not too hungover from celebrating America’s birthday to bet some MLB Friday. All 30 teams take the diamond. This includes baseball’s biggest rivalry, the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, and a game between the two best NL East teams, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves. 

That said, I’m just trying to hype you up for MLB Friday since I don’t have action in either game. Instead, I’m fading this Paul Skenes kid, backing Shane Baz in his return to The Show, and celebrating Shohei Ohtani‘s 30th birthday. Without further ado, allow me to explain myself. 

MLB Bet Slip: July 5

  • 1 unit (u) on the New York Mets +120 moneyline vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (DraftKings).
  • 1.04u on the Tampa Bay Rays -104 moneyline vs. Texas Rangers (FanDuel).
  • 1.1u on the OVER 7.5 (-110) in the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (DraftKings).

New York Mets (42-42) at Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Mets (+115) swept the Pirates (-135) in a 3-game set earlier this year with a +13 run differential (18-5). Pittsburgh gives the current favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, RHP Paul Skenes (4-0 with a 2.06 ERA) the ball Friday. New York counters with RHP Luis Severino (5-2, 3.42 ERA), who, if we are being fair, is having a nice bounce-back season. 

Severino went 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 2023, his final year with the Yankees. His ERA is more than three runs lower and Severino has a 1.16 WHIP. The 30-year-old has given the Mets seven “quality starts” (six-plus innings with three or fewer earned runs). Yes, Skenes is the better starter. But, Severino can keep NYM in this game, who has a better bullpen. 

Also, this is a “better spot” for the Mets. They are 12-8 as road underdogs this season with a +37.5 return on investment (ROI) and +7.52u. As home favorites, the Pirates are 10-14 with a -26.1% ROI and -8.81u. They are 2-2 with Skenes on the mound in those spots too. Plus, people love Skenes and there is value in fading him and Pittsburgh. 

Lastly, the Mets have been raking lately while the Pirates have been struggling at the dish. Over the last two weeks, New York’s lineup leads MLB in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA, according to FanGraphs. Whereas Pittsburgh’s lineup ranks 27th or worse in those metrics during that stretch. BET 1u on the New York Mets +120 moneyline at DraftKings. 

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Tampa Bay Rays (44-43) at Texas Rangers (39-48), 8:10 p.m. ET

Quietly, the Rays have been playing well recently. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games and hot at the plate. Tampa Bay’s lineup is in the top five in WAR, wOBA, and wRC+ over the last two weeks, per FanGraphs. Moreover, the Rays rank better than the Rangers in wRC+ (109-91), wOBA (.315-.299), and ISO (.161-.138) vs. right-handed pitching. 

Texas starts RHP Michael Lorenzen (4-4, 3.40 ERA) Friday, who is having a solid year, but his ERA is misleading. Lorenzen has a 5.07 Fielding Independent Pitching (“FIP”), which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher’s control. His BAbip is .226, 70 points lower than the MLB average, meaning he is due for regression. 

Tampa traded RHP Aaron Civale earlier this week to make room for RHP Shane Baz in the starting rotation. This is Baz’s first start since 2022 after having Tommy John surgery. Baz has been dealing in Triple-A. Reportedly, he topped out at 99 mph before getting recalled and has some of the best stuff in MLB. As a Yankees fan who watches a lot of Rays baseball, I can vouch for Baz’s nastiness. 

Finally, nearly two-thirds of the bets are on the Rangers as of 1:30 p.m. ET Friday, according to Pregame.com. However, the line is moving toward Tampa, which opened as an underdog but is now closer to a pick ’em with Texas. BET 1.04u on the Tampa Bay Rays -104 moneyline at FanDuel. 

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Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) at Los Angeles Dodgers (53-35), 10:10 p.m. ET

In this case, I’m fading the line movement. Brewers-Dodgers opened with an 8-run total and roughly 80% of the money is on the Under, per Pregame.com. Now, this game has a 7.5-run total. Granted, LA’s starter Friday, RHP Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 3.23 ERA) is a bonafide ace. Yet, the Dodgers are 6-3 Over/Under (O/U) in Glasnow’s home starts and have combined for more than 8 runs in seven of those games. 

Furthermore, Brewers RHP Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.07 ERA) makes his first start for Milwaukee Friday. While pitching for Tampa, Civale was 10-7 O/U. Five of his eight starts on the road have seen at least 9 runs scored. Against teams with a winning record, Civale has a 5.97 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. There have been 8+ runs scored in LA’s previous six games. 

Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman celebrates a three-run home run with C Will Smith and DH Shohei Ohtani vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman celebrates a three-run home run with C Will Smith and DH Shohei Ohtani vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

More importantly, Los Angeles tees off on right-handed pitching. Dodgers All-Star slugger Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to win 2024 NL MVP and leads the NL with 21 home runs. The third betting favorite for the NL MVP is another LA lefty slugger, 1B Freddie Freeman. 

Ohtani turns 30 years old Friday and I just feel like he’s going yard vs. the Brewers. Freeman has a .372 wOBA and 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks. In his last 11 games, Shohei has 6 home runs and 11 RBI. I wouldn’t hate a sprinkle on Ohtani hitting a home run (+220) at DraftKings.  BET 1.1u on OVER 7.5 runs (-110) in Brewers-Dodgers at DraftKings. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.