Berrios And Blue Jays Will Stop Astros Run

Astros vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

Astros vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

We’ve entered my favorite month of the baseball season. July bring one of the more exciting stretches in baseball as we have some really cool stuff happening this month. July is the midway point in the season where we see what a lot of teams actually are (though this year is so difficult because there are so many teams that are around the .500 mark). In addition, we get the All-Star Game, which isn’t quite as cool as it once was, but the Home Run Derby is usually a fun time. Finally, we have my favorite part of the season – the trade deadline. I would guess that the Astros don’t make major moves one way or another and the Blue Jays will likely be sellers very soon.

This season looked like it was going to be a complete disaster for the Astros. They struggled for a large portion of the season, but have found a way to climb above .500 as we’ve entered into July. They are certainly playing their best baseball of the season right now as they have won 10 of their past 11 games. They dominated the month of June overall, going 17-8. The best part about this for them is that Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier are on the injured list. Why is that a good thing? If they can be this successful without two-thirds of their rotation, they should be able to improve significantly moving forward. For the Astros, my expectation is that they probably try to add small pieces to the team and make a push for the division or Wild Card, both are still in play. I would be fairly surprised if we got a significant splash from the team. Tonight they put one of their weaker links on the team on the mound, Spencer Arrighetti. He is coming off of his best start of the season, going seven innings, three hits, striking out ten batters, and allowing no earned runs. Overall, he is 4-6 with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. None of his numbers are very good, but his road ERA is worse than his home ERA at 6.34. He has never faced the Blue Jays so it is interesting to see what will happen as the Blue Jays try to figure him out. Which version are we getting tonight? The Arrighetti who navigates well through lineups like he did in his last start, or the one who struggles to find a way to get out of a couple innings of work.

Jun 26, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (41) delivers a pitch against the Colorado Rockies during the game at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

If you look at the Blue Jays, you could argue that they are one really strong run from putting themselves back into the playoff conversation. Right now, the division is probably out of reach. My guess is that the Wild Card will be their only route for making the playoffs. As of right now, it doesn’t even matter because they are eight games under .500. The point is that if they go on a 10-1 run like the Astros, they will be above .500 and climb the ranks. The problem is that time may be running out on if the club is willing to give them that opportunity. The team has had numerous players popping up in trade talks and the deadline is rapidly approaching. Originally the talks had centered around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but he has played very well lately and it will be tougher to pry him away both because the Blue Jays may want to keep him, and the asking price is going to be higher. Bo Bichette is the other one that is higher up on the list for the trade potential now. There are a number of teams that could use his services, but he is not hitting well, so they may choose to keep him until he turns things around and they can get better value. If they choose to trade a pitcher, Jose Berrios could be one of the guys that would be worth trading. He’s having a nice season with a 7-6 record, 3.38 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. He has been spectacular at home this season, going 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA. He has made eight starts this season at home and seven of them have been quality starts. He did face Houston once this season and allowed one earned run over six innings. The Blue Jays won that game 2-1.

The books opened this game with the Astros being slight dogs in the game. The line has moved in favor of the Blue Jays and I can’t say I disagree with it. I know the Astros are playing good baseball right now, certainly better than the Blue Jays. However, I really don’t think Arrighetti is a good pitcher and don’t think he is going to lead them to a win today. Berrios has been a very good pitcher this season and even better at home. I’ll back Toronto to win this game at -118.

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