Just How Bad Was the Bowman Loss?

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The dust is settling from yesterday’s primary races and if you were following our live updates of the races in New York, you already know that Jamaal “Fire Alarm” Bowman lost by a significant margin to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. At the end of this term, he will become the first “Squad” member to be evicted from Congress. Unfortunately, he may be the only one to face that fate because AOC handily fended off her own challenger in her district. But just how bad of a beating did Bowman take? As it turns out, it wasn’t quite as much of a blowout as the polls were predicting, though it was a wide enough margin that the race was called relatively early and Bowman delivered a concession speech. (More on that below.) The Free Beacon has the final scores this morning. 

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D., N.Y.) became the first “Squad” member to lose reelection, falling to Westchester County executive George Latimer in a race that largely centered on Bowman’s intense hostility toward the Jewish state—and Jewish voters in his district.

Latimer led Bowman by 9 points with 51 percent of the vote reported when the Associated Press called the race just before 9:40 p.m. on Tuesday.

Bowman’s loss makes him the first member of the left-wing “Squad” to lose reelection. It also comes days after the two-term lawmaker accused Jewish voters in his district of segregation. While those in New York City “all live together,” Bowman said in an interview, there are “certain places where the Jews live and concentrate” just north of the city in Westchester County, which Bowman represents.

The first thing to note is that Latimer had a comfortable lead of nine points when the AP called the race, but it continued to expand as the final precincts sent in their results. The final polling before the vote showed Bowman trailing by 17 points and in the end that was almost exactly the final margin. Latimer prevailed by a 58.4 to 41.6 margin. That’s probably not enough to call it a “blowout,” but the district sent a clear message.

The shift in the lead over the course of the night was fairly dramatic and it shows that I misread one part of the dynamics in this race when I published my preview yesterday morning. When the first results were reported, Bowman was actually leading by a rather staggering 83-17 margin. That’s because the first precincts to report were almost entirely located in the Bronx, where Bowman maintained a lot of support. Latimer’s support came largely from the more suburban reaches of Westchester County to the north.

The map of the district was redrawn following the 2020 census. It had previously been located almost entirely in the Bronx. I incorrectly downplayed the impact of the shift in the district lines, assuming that Bowman’s condemnation of Israel and antipathy toward Jews had simply eroded his support, along with his censure for pulling his fire alarm stunt in Washington. But if the district had remained mostly in the Bronx, it appears that he probably would have prevailed in the primary and gone on to win another term in Congress. There may have been a racial component to this as well because Westchester County is measurably whiter than the Bronx. So I blew the call on that part of it. Nobody’s perfect.

As for Bowman’s concession speech, we should give him credit for admitting defeat fairly early. But even in saying goodbye, he couldn’t resist the urge to shift the blame onto his favorite target. He mentioned that his district contains”certain places where the Jews live and concentrate.” Perhaps that’s true, but those Jews obviously have a lot more friends and supporters than Bowman does.

So Bowman is out while AOC will remain. But that doesn’t mean that the rest of the Squad is entirely safe. Don’t forget that the Democratic primary for Minnesota’s 5th District is coming up in roughly six weeks on August 13. Ilhan Omar is locked in a very tight primary battle with the far more moderate Don Samuels. She barely squeaked past him in the primary two years ago and he has been seeing a big boost in fundraising, including from AIPAC, though Omar is still outraising him by a healthy margin. Curiously, I was unable to find any fresh polling in that race from any major outlets in the past month. Samuels has his work cut out for him, but it would be gratifying to see him pull off what George Latimer did in New York.