Braves Starter Still Undervalued By Market

Braves vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

Braves vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

I was proud to find a couple of wins yesterday, and honestly I needed it. Today, I’ve been struggling with sharing just two plays with you all because there are a ton of great matchups in baseball. I really like a lot of the pitchers that are starting today, and we have a wide variety of games that are close to even matches (I consider anything in the realm of -110 to -135 on moneyline close to coin flip games). This one falls somewhat into that category and I think we have a good chance to make some money on this one as the Braves take on the Cardinals. 

The Braves have been one of those teams that have been so good during adversity that I’ve gone from being sick of their success to actually somewhat rooting for them. The team is not quite as impressive as they were offensively last season, but they are still performing when needed. Today, they come into the game 10 games over .500. Still, they are struggling to win games on the road, being a game under .500. You can’t blame the offensive production difference from last season to this season on the lack of Ronald Acuna Jr. He hasn’t been gone for that long. Realistically, the production last season was probably just a level that they couldn’t replicate again. The pitching has remained strong despite the loss of their dominant, Cy-Young-favorite-when-the-season-started, Spencer Strider. He was replaced this season by Reynaldo Lopez, who has been phenomenal. He would lead the league in ERA if he had enough of the innings under his belt. For the year he has a 1.57 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 74.1 innings. He currently has an 11-inning scoreless streak and has only allowed two earned runs this month. Of the 17 innings he has pitched this month, he has allowed runs in just one of them. Can he keep this up a full season? We will see, but for now, he continues to be one of the more undervalued pitchers. Cardinals hitters have only seen him eight times and Paul Goldschmidt is the only one with hits against him. 

May 22, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (44) pitches against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals are multiple games over .500 for the first time since 2022. I’ve written quite a bit about how teams are within striking distance of a .500 record. There are a ton of teams that could use a stretch like St. Louis has had over the past two weeks that allows them to get over the hump. Since June 9th the Cardinals are 10-4. In these 14 games, the Cardinals have scored 62 runs, which comes out to about 4.5 runs per game. This isn’t that much better than their season average as they score about four runs a game. The pitching staff has done well, allowing just 48 runs in that stretch, but they have allowed at least three runs in seven straight games, so the team is balanced well with the offense and pitching right now. Today they have Kyle Gibson on the mound. He is 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The pitching staff was a big issue last season, so Gibson joining the rotation has helped. He is coming off of his best start of the season where he allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings. He has been worse at home than he has been on road. His home ERA is 4.28 compared to 2.68 on the road. Braves hitters have a lot of experience against him with 112 at-bats and five hitters having 10 or more at-bats against him. Their overall average is .348 with eight homers. 

I think the Braves are going to win this game, and I’m pretty confident that they are going to win it by more than one run. Looking at the moneyline, it is an affordable -135. I think it is a better idea to take the run line at +124. I think we are going to start running out of opportunities to get good value on Lopez, so I’ll back him in this one on the run line for the full game and hope the bullpen doesn’t let me down. 

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