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The polls consistently have shown Donald Trump winning in key battleground states all year. The election is less than six months away and President Joe BIden has conceded the economy, the border, China, foreign policy, and all manner of radical progressive, antisemitic, terrorist-loving freaks in the extreme wing of the Democratic Party. Between now and November 5th, Biden has no way to gain votes. My brother’s mantra is Biden “loses 10 votes a day”. The incumbent president is not catching up to the former president.

So what is Biden doing when he isn’t making it? He’s faking it. That’s the way he’s always done it for 50 years.

In January, Biden told the media “I don’t believe the polls.” In his campaign stops, he spread a blanket of lies so thick that even his lickspittles at CNN have to take notice. Such obvious stuff like “I hope you’re all able to make $400,000. I never did.” (The salary of the U.S. President, by law, is $400,000.) The Bidens consistently make well over a half million in income every year this decade. In the years immediately following his term as VP, Biden made nearly $16 million. He said he went to Iraq and Afghanistan “36, 38 times” when he was a senator and VP. Even Biden’s campaign (which has not been fact checked) says it wasn’t more than 21 visits. Maybe Biden’s mentation is so bad that he keeps remembering the same trips over and over, or maybe he just lies without thinking.

When Biden tells us that he doesn’t believe the polls, he is lying or he is being delusional. The polls were right in 2020, and if they’re wrong now, they’re wrong in the opposite direction. See, minority voters are fed up with the Democratic Party and Joe Biden, but social expectations don’t let them tell pollsters the truth. Erick Erickson proposed that a Trump PAC come up with an ad illustrating this, called “The Lie.”

ANDRE: Mr. Johnson? [voice off camera says yes] My name is Andre. I use he/him pronouns. This is my white ally Xander who uses she/they pronouns. We are here on behalf of the Biden campaign. Mr. Johnson, we know you have been a loyal Democrat and Joe Biden has been loyal to people of color. Our community wants to make sure President Biden can count on you.

Cuts to Mr. Johnson.

MR. JOHNSON: excitedly says Yes he can. I’ve already requested by absentee ballot.

Cuts to a wide shot of Andre and Xander.

XANDER jumps up and down smiling and making a little excited chirp.

…

Cuts to Mr. Johnson’s wife. She is sitting on a worn velvet couch wearing a casual dress. Above her is a giant portrait of Donald Trump’s mug shot. To the left is a Trump flag. To the right is a framed picture of Donald Trump and a Trump 2024 yard sign affixed to the wall.

MRS. JOHSON: Clarence! Why did you lie to that boy?

MR. JOHNSON: with a firm look on his face Honey, Joe Biden has lied to us for fifty years. My brother and my uncle both went to prison because of Biden’s three strikes law and they got out thanks to Donald Trump’s First Steps Act. Joe Biden has been lying to blacks for fifty years. We can lie to him just once.

Biden isn’t just lying to Black people. He’s lying to everyone, including himself. But just in case you might think the polls are wrong–that people who say they’re voting for Trump are really supporting Biden–don’t take my word for it. The best source of information on the planet on any given topic isn’t found in the polls, it’s found in the oddsmakers who take bets on the outcome.

The oddsmakers in the U.K. says that Trump is winning. The latest odds show an “implied win probability” of 54.55% (which was higher) for Trump, and 43.48% for Biden. Now keep in mind, it’s illegal to bet on political events in the U.S. The people setting these odds don’t vote in our elections, they only take bets on who will win. Those people have money on the line, and they are paying out more in odds for Biden than Trump.

It’s going to be a close race no matter what happens. Most states are either solidly blue or solidly red. But in the states where the election will be won or lost, the polls have Trump ahead. The oddsmakers have Trump ahead. The economy, the border, China, and crazy kids who hate America and love Marxism say that Biden is digging a hole he can’t climb out of.

Regardless of my personal opinions about Trump, I believe the polls, and I believe the odds. Who’s the bigger liar?

Follow Steve on Twitter @stevengberman.

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