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A strong majority of likely U.S. voters believe there will be another assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump before Election Day, a new Rasmussen Reports poll found. 

The first assassination attempt against Trump occurred on July 13 during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when Thomas Matthew Crooks shot him in his right ear as he was speaking to the crowd, leaving his face bloodied. The second assassination attempt happened on Sept. 15, after suspect Ryan Wesley Routh was caught poking a gun out of the bushes onto Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida. Secret Service and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been under intense scrutiny for their handling of both incidents. 

“A man was recently charged in connection with an apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump. How likely is it that there will be more assassination attempts against Trump between now and Election Day?” poll respondents were asked. 

The survey found that 65 percent of respondents believe it is “likely” that there will be more assassination attempts against Trump before Election Day, including 32 percent who believe it is “very likely.” In contrast, 21 percent do not believe another attempt is likely, and 14 percent are not sure.

Majorities of every political category believe it is at least “somewhat likely” that there will be more attempts on Trump’s life, including 75 percent of Republicans, 56 percent of Democrats, and 64 percent of unaffiliated voters.

Poll respondents were also asked: “This was the second assassination attempt against Trump since July. Which is more likely – that the people trying to assassinate Trump are suffering from mental illness, or that they are motivated by the rhetoric of Trump’s enemies?”

Nearly half (49 percent) of respondents say those who are trying to assassinate Trump are motivated by the rhetoric of the former president’s enemies. Democrats and left-wing media often compare Trump to Hitler and label him as a “threat to democracy” — even after the assassination attempts. Some politicians have even used incendiary language like: “time to put” former President Donald Trump “in the bullseye,” and “Let’s extinguish him for good,” when speaking about the Republican candidate. 

A little over a third (36 percent) of poll respondents believe would-be assassins are suffering from mental illness, and 15 percent are unsure, the survey found. 

The poll found that among those who believe another assassination attempt is “very likely,” 63 percent believe would-be assassins are motivated by the rhetoric of Trump’s enemies. 

By political affiliation, Republicans (63 percent) and unaffiliated voters (53 percent) are more likely than Democrats (33 percent) to blame extreme anti-Trump rhetoric for inspiring assassination attempts against the former president.

“Sixty-three percent of self-identified conservative voters blame the rhetoric of Trump’s enemies for the assassination attempts, while 54 percent of liberals think the would-be assassins are suffering from mental illness,” the survey report reads. “Among moderate voters, 44 percent blame the rhetoric of Trump’s enemies, while 38 percent blame mental illness and 18 percent are not sure.”

The survey was conducted with 1,114 likely U.S. voters between September 18-19 and 22, 2024. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.