End of the Line for Nancy Pelosi: Hip Fractures, Mortality Rates, and

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The good news is, she’s a wealthy, politically-connected woman. All three matter: when you’re wealthy, you have more options; when you’re politically-connected, you don’t wait in line; and women are way better at longevity than men are.

And not just because men are dopey, drink more, and think it’s wicked cool to play with fireworks. (Or play with fireworks while drunk.) There’s a genetic component, too.

There’s a reason why 85% of centenarians (and 90% of supercentenarians) are women. And this reason isn’t purely behavioral.

When it comes to longevity, genetics are king. (Or, more commonly: queen.)

Still, the short-term and long-term outlook for Nancy Pelosi’s political career is dismal. It’s a sad, brutal — and painful — end for one of the most influential legislators in American history. The purpose of this column isn’t to gloat (only a cretin delights in the physical suffering of others), but to be truthful and candid about what happens next.

Statistically, when a woman in her mid-80s breaks her hip, the consequences are cataclysmic. Up to 33% of older adults with hip fractures die within a year. 50% are unable to bathe, feed, wipe their butts, or dress themselves.

About one in five end up in a long-term care facility.

During the first three months after a hip fracture, older adults have a five to eight times higher risk of dying. And this elevated mortality rate lasts nearly a decade.

An untreated hip fracture is even worse. 70% of victims are dead within a year.

It’s not a trivial thing.

Often, it’s not that the broken hip itself is so medically dangerous, but it’s an overall indicator of physical frailty: if your grip-strength, stamina, balance, and bone density have all severely deteriorated, you’re more likely to fall and break your hip. It could be more correlation than causation.

Which is why grip-strength has been hailed as “an indispensable biomarker for older adults”: it’s not that having strong hands is the secret to a long and healthy life, but that people with strong hands are less likely to slip and fall. Plus, they’re probably stronger overall.

When it comes to longevity, it’s usually not attributable to one thing, but to clusters of traits, behaviors, and characteristics. It makes pinpointing cause and effect a little tricky.

In addition to being a wealthy, politically-connected woman, Nancy Pelosi was also an unusually active octogenarian. We’re all affected by Father Time, but by all accounts, Pelosi was still a wily, clever legislator with razor-sharp elbows. Just a few months ago, she spearheaded a coup that deposed the sitting president! And a few years before that, she was tearing up Trump’s speech on national TV.

She’s not someone who’s spent the past 20 years in a rocking chair. She seems fit, thin, and very active.

All of this matters. The healthier you were before your hip injury, the more likely it is you’ll recover.

But it’s a deadly serious situation for Pelosi and her loved ones. Almost certainly, she’s facing a steep recovery process, and at her age, it’s foreseeable that there could be a series of struggles.

Nancy Pelosi has been such a fixture in American politics for so many decades, she seemed larger than life — a permanent, immovable presence. It seemed as if, in 50 million years, there would still be cockroaches, taxes, and Nancy Pelosi pulling strings in the House.

If anyone could outlast Father Time, it’s her.

But for both good and bad, our legislators are human. Ones on the right; ones on the left; those in the middle: we’re all flesh and blood.

And we all grow old. We all get sick. All of us will die.

Even Nancy Pelosi.

In all likelihood, her career is over.