Circa Million VI NFL Week 13 Picks: Texans-Jaguars, Eagles-Ravens, Titans-Commanders

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Good news: I’ve equaled my win total from last week in the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest on Thanksgiving in Week 13. Bad news: I can’t get my first 5-0 of the year because I went 1-1 Thursday. My Chicago Bears +9.5 pick hit in a 23-20 loss to the Detroit Lions. However, my Miami Dolphins +3 pick whiffed when they lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-17.

Week 12 Recap: 1-4

1. Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) ❌
2. Arizona Cardinals (Pick ‘Em) ❌
3. New England Patriots (+7) ❌
4. Las Vegas Raiders (+6) ❌
5. Carolina Panthers (+10.5) ✅

Heading into Week 13, I’m 28-32 and tied for 3,563rd out of 5,816 entries in the Circa Million VI. At this point, I’m playing for pride because my only chance to make money in this racket is the “4th Quarter” contest, which runs from Week 14-18. 

Circa Million VI NFL Week 13 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

1. Chicago Bears (+9.5) ✅
2. Miami Dolphins (+3) ❌
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
4. Baltimore Ravens (-3)
5. Tennessee Titans (+6)

Circa Million Pick #1: Bears (+9.5) at Lions ✅

I started drinking early at Thanksgiving because of the first half of this game. Detroit led 16-0 entering halftime and my Chicago +9.5 pick looked donezo. But, the Bears rallied, almost pulling off an upset in their 23-20 loss, and my record on Thursday picks in the Circa Million over the past two years improved to 13-1. 

Unfortunately for now-former Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, covering the spread wasn’t good enough to keep his job. Chicago’s disastrous clock management to end the game was such a bad look that Eberflus became the first head coach fired mid-season in the franchise’s 105-year history. 

(LISTEN to Bears-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #2: Dolphins (+3) at Packers ❌

It’s an understatement to say I hate Miami and coach Mike McDaniel. They consistently choke against quality competition, in primetime games, and when playing outdoors in the winter under McDaniel. My only two losses in Thursday NFL games since last season were picking the fraudulent Dolphins, and I’ll never forgive them for that. 

First, I took the Dolphins to cover as -2 home favorites vs. the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Miami got crushed 31-10. Then, I foolishly took the Dolphins again Thanksgiving, and they got embarrassed in a 30-17 loss. The loss may cost Miami an AFC playoff spot, which makes me happy because I won’t lose more money betting the Dolphins in big games. 

(LISTEN to Dolphins-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #3: Houston Texans at Jaguars (+4.5)

I’m 5-0 in Jacksonville games subbed into the Circa Million VI, so I have no hard feelings about its disappointing season. I’ve successfully faded the Jaguars three times and correctly picked them twice. I’m going back to the well with Jacksonville because Houston is 6-10-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite since 2023. 

Furthermore, betting on the 2-9 Jaguars has been more profitable than betting on the 7-5 Texans. Jacksonville is 6-5 ATS vs. the third-toughest schedule, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). While Houston is 5-7 ATS vs. the 23rd-toughest schedule and 0-4 ATS in division games. 

Also, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence should return this week after missing the previous two games with an injury. Everyone is trashing Lawrence, but he is objectively having a better season than Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Lawrence has a better PFF grade, QBR, and EPA plus completion percentage over expectation. 

Finally, the sportsbooks are begging us to bet on the Texans. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action is on Houston as of Saturday evening, but the Jaguars have gone from +6 underdogs on the opener to +3.5. Since the Circa Million VI contest line is “Jacksonville +4.5”, we are getting a good number. 

(LISTEN to Texans-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #4: Philadelphia Eagles at Ravens (-3)

This is a great spot for Baltimore. Since 2019 (Lamar Jackson’s first season as a full-time starter), the Ravens are 17-10 ATS as -3.5 favorites or fewer and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in that price range. Plus, Lamar is 23-1 straight up (SU) all-time vs. NFC teams. 

Baltimore has a higher yards-per-play differential vs. a tougher schedule. According to PFF, Philadelphia has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and Baltimore has played the seventh-toughest. Even though the Eagles played in the Super Bowl two years ago, they aren’t in the Ravens’ tier yet. 

Philadelphia has injuries to key players, including WR DeVonta Smith and edge rushers Bryce Huff and Brandon Graham. Smith is questionable for Week 13, but his absence is crucial because Baltimore’s pass defense sucks. Without Huff or Graham, Philly’s highest-graded pass rusher per PFF, Lamar will be comfy in the pocket. 

The Eagles wear down opponents with their physicality and average the fewest points per game (PPG) in the first quarter (1.5 PPG). The Ravens have the second-best rush defense in the league. Lastly, Philadelphia won’t be able to get away with a slow start against Baltimore, the best offense in the NFL. 

(LISTEN to Eagles-Ravens analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #5: Titans (+6) at Washington Commanders

Tennessee’s biggest issue is turning the ball over, but Washington is 22nd in takeaways. After missing Week 7-9 with an injury, Titans QB Will Levis is starting to play better. Granted, Levis still makes bone-headed mistakes. That said, at least he is making some big plays now. Over his last three games, Levis has a 109.3 QB Rating. 

Meanwhile, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is starting to hit the rookie wall. Maybe Daniels’ recent struggles are due to a rib injury that knocked him out of Washington’s 40-7 Week 7 win over the Carolina Panthers. Or maybe the league is catching up with Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s system like it usually does. 

Either way, Daniels completed 75.3% of his passes and had a 107.1 QB Rating in six games pre-injury. In contrast, Daniels has a 61.0% completion rate with an 88.0 QB Rating in five games post-injury. NFL film guys say that Daniels, or Kingsbury, haven’t been getting Washington’s wide receivers involved lately. 

More importantly, Tennessee has impressive underlying statistics. The Titans were tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers in yards-per-play differential entering Week 13. Tennessee has a +10 net in first downs converted and ranks fifth in early-down success rate on defense, per RBSDM.com. 

(LISTEN to Titans-Commanders analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.