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A surprise offensive by a coalition of anti-Assad groups has captured the key city of Aleppo and sent Assad’s troops and their Russian auxiliaries into a retreat to find more defensible lines. The offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a faction that until 2017 was considered to be a subsidiary of Al Qaeda. It is allied with several Turkish-backed militias during this offensive. Official reports place the insurgent forces inside Aleppo, but social media reports indicate that Aleppo has fallen except for isolated pockets of resistance.

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Russian aircraft flying in support of the Assad regime have responded in the most Russian way possible. They are bombing population centers held by the “Free Syrian Army.”

Video and imagery of dead Russian troops, both special forces and private military corporations, are appearing.

For the record, I’m not sure there are any good guys here. The FSA is the least bad because if you are killing Russians and Iranians, you aren’t the worst actor.

The situation is very unclear, but it appears that Assad’s army has evaporated in the area of the offensive. It remains to be seen if those troops can be rallied and a defensive line reestablished or if Assad will soon be heading for exile in some place that doesn’t have an extradition treaty with France.

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