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Longshoreman negotiators informed the press that talks have stalled and that the October 1 strike is going to happen. Retailers brace for what is expected to be massive shortages affecting multiple industries.
Business owners like Chris Butler are growing very concerned. Butler is the CEO of the National Tree Company, and, like many businesses, his is counting on shipments that are en route from Asia but won’t reach their ports before an expected strike by longshoremen starting at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.
The company, based in New Jersey, is an importer of artificial Christmas trees and other holiday decorations. If a strike were to last just a few days, there might be time afterward to unload the trees, transport them to warehouses and have them ready for customers this season.
Yet if a strike were to keep ports closed until, say, November, about 150,000 trees might not arrive in time for the peak shopping season, imposing costs on National Tree and other businesses. In a worst-case scenario, those costs, multiplied across industries, could fuel inflation and pressure the U.S. economy.
“Definitely not an ideal situation,” Butler said.
National Tree already has stockpiled or delivered most of the roughly 2 million artificial trees it sells each year. But it would lose revenue if 150,000 of the trees got stuck in the pipeline.
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Other businesses face the same predicament, with goods that could be stranded at sea if 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association make good on their threat to strike. They could shut down 36 ports from Maine to Texas that handle about half the goods shipped into and out of the United States. West Coast dockworkers belong to a different union and aren’t involved in the strike.
A prolonged strike would force companies to pay shippers for the delays, and goods could arrive too late for the high point of the holiday shopping season.
Now, after seemingly rushing to address every crisis, top Biden administration officials met with port operators on Friday and told them they should negotiate with the union ahead of Tuesday, according to a White House official who insisted on anonymity to discuss an ongoing meeting.
Butler says he’s hoping for an agreement or for government intervention to halt a strike. But the U.S. Maritime Alliance, which represents shippers and ports, and the longshoremen’s union haven’t met since June. No talks are scheduled before their contract expires late Monday.
“ILA unity remains strong and is growing,” James McNamara, spokesman for the International Longshoremen’s Association, said in a statement Sunday.
He said the union would update the public on any new developments by 11 a.m. Monday. The union is demanding significantly higher wages and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and moving containers in the loading and unloading of freight.
The Toy Association, the nation’s leading toy trade group, was among about 200 organizations that asked President Joe Biden in a letter this month to work with both sides to reach an agreement.
The National Grain and Feed Association also urged Biden to take action to avert a strike, which would come just as harvest season gets underway.
Their push has put Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in a sensitive position: Both have courted union support and don’t want to be seen as pressuring the longshoremen to reach a settlement.
Yet if an extended strike were to cause shortages of consumer goods or fuel high inflation, it could cost Harris votes in the November election.
Under the Taft-Hartley Act, Biden could seek a court order to suspend the strike for an 80-day cooling-off period. Robyn Patterson, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that the administration has never invoked the act and isn’t considering it now.
Biden and Congress did step in two years ago to block a looming freight rail strike and force those workers to accept a deal because of widespread fears that a rail strike would have damaged the economy.
Alex Hertel-Fernandez, an associate professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University who served as a Labor Department official under Biden, suggested that the administration will follow the playbook it used in talks last year between West Coast ports and the union there: Mediating negotiations without directly intervening.
Greg Ahearn, CEO of the Toy Association, said a strike would happen at a critical moment for toy sellers and makers: Up to 60% of annual sales occur from October through December. Though some toy companies shipped goods earlier, Ahearn said a strike would make it hard to replenish hot-selling items.
“A strike would raise toy prices Based on scarcity and increased costs,” Ahearn said.
At National Tree, Butler and his crew began preparing for a strike in July. They accelerated shipments for everything they could. But one major retail client, he said, asked for trees early. And until recently, factories in China and elsewhere couldn’t produce the rest of National Tree’s orders.
Ships containing the trees are on the way to New York but won’t get there before Tuesday. A prolonged strike, Butler said, would force most of the trees to be warehoused until next Christmas season.
A longshoremen’s strike would further distress a global supply chain that has already endured slowdowns from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on commercial shipping.
Those attacks have all but shut down the use of the Red Sea and Suez Canal, said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation.
The attacks are forcing longer transit times for vessels that must navigate around the Cape of Good Hope to reach East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.
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A dockworkers’ strike, Gold said, could prove even more damaging than the pandemic-induced port congestion in 2021 and 2022, when cargo was allowed to move, albeit slowly. Eastern ports could be left at a standstill. Gold noted that carriers are already announcing surcharges on containers to address potential disruptions, a trend that could elevate inflation.
Many retailers might find it difficult to charge customers more to make up for those expenses. Most vulnerable, Gold said, would be small businesses that don’t import directly and lack the financial resources to incur higher costs.
Shippers could reroute some cargo to West Coast ports. But those ports couldn’t come close to absorbing the additional cargo. The Port of Los Angeles, for example, moved 960,000 containers in August — about 80% of its capacity, said Gene Seroka, its executive director.
The major Western railroads, Union Pacific and BNSF, have added capacity to their systems to handle more freight as imports have increased.
Eastern railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern say they can move cars and crews to handle more freight coming to Chicago from the West. But it’s not clear just how much more the railroads can manage. In any case, Butler said, it would be too costly for him to ship trees across the country by rail.
Taylor Green, co-founder of landscaping company Artificial Grass Solutions in Los Angeles, which imports artificial turf, said he bought 25% more turf than usual to ensure there would be enough for clients’ projects. He also made arrangements with alternative suppliers in case the strike goes on indefinitely.
If it does, Green said, price increases would likely be necessary. Still, like some larger retailers and manufacturers, Artificial Grass says it’s better prepared for shortages than it was during the pandemic.
“We’ve learned to be proactive rather than reactive,” Green said.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
