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The probability former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris soared to a 10-point spread, a J.L. Partners election model revealed Thursday.

The forecast indicates Harris’s so-called honeymoon since joining the 2024 White House race in July appears over as the model found Trump’s probability increased four points since Monday and nine points since the debate.

The model simulated the course of the election around 8,000 times and created a probability of each candidate winning a state and then the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.

The Daily Mail’s Rob Crilly reported on the finding:

But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.

It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.

The best way to understand what it all means is to imagine running the model multiple times with all the different permutations and combinations for all the different states. When all of those are run, Trump wins on average 55.2 percent of the time.

Data analyst at J.L. Partners, Callum Hunter, believes Trump could open an even wider lead in the coming weeks.

“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”