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There was a special election in Texas-34 yesterday to fill the remainder of Democrat Rep. Filemon Vela’s term of office. Vela resigned from Congress to become a lobbyist in March, and Democrat Dan Sanchez sought to replace him in a district won by Joe Biden in 2020.

But the Republican candidate, Mayra Flores, had other ideas. Flores is a respiratory technician and ran a well-funded campaign. In the end, she prevailed 51%–43%. She is the first U.S. congresswoman born in Mexico and the first Republican to represent the district since 1870.

While this is no doubt a huge victory for Republicans, it comes with several caveats. Flores ran in the old 34th district. While Biden won the 34th by 5% in 2020, the new lines drawn for redistricting will give Democrats a 15-point partisan tilt. It was drawn for long-time Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, the McAllen Democrat who currently represents the neighboring 15th district.

Democrats don’t think Flores has much of a chance in November.

Houston Chronicle:

“MAGA Republican Mayra Flores shouldn’t get too comfortable — she’ll barely have enough time to set up her desk before South Texans send her packing again,” said U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’s all eyes on November now as we gear up to send Vicente Gonzalez back to Congress this fall.”

Republicans saw Tuesday’s race as a key opportunity to build momentum in South Texas, especially as inflation and everyday costs soar under the Biden administration.

Plus, special elections typically see very low turnout — only the most energized, motivated voters turn out to the polls — and that has historically helped Republicans win blue seats. Tuesday’s turnout was just about 7.3 percent of registered voters.

Is it possible Democrats are unaware of the ground shifting beneath their feet in South Texas? Flores is going to have plenty of cash to compete with Gonzalez, and with the economy getting worse, even the 15-point partisan lean in the district is not impossible to overcome.

Related: Red Wave Watch: CNN Says the GOP Is in Its Best Position Since 1938

Elsewhere on primary night, the national media sought to make the primary races all about Trump. In South Carolina, one member who was critical of Trump, Rep. Nancy Mace, prevailed while another member who supported impeachment, Tom Rice, lost.

Mace crossed Trump by voting to hold Steve Bannon in contempt and criticizing the former president. Mace defeated former GOP state Rep. Katie Arrington, who had been endorsed by Trump. Rice, on the other hand, had trashed Trump in public and voted for his second impeachment. He lost in a blowout to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Russell Fry.

In Nevada, a pro-Trump slate of Republicans cruised to primary victories, including Adam Laxalt, son of Ronald Reagan confidante and former Senator Paul Laxalt. And Trump-backed candidate for Secretary of State Jim Marchant also had little trouble winning his primary.

There are still 26 states that have yet to hold primaries. As the economy worsens, Democrats are going to want to hide from a public who won’t be in a forgiving mood.