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I infer that Dr. Oz is going to emerge as the winner of the Pennsylvania when the initial tally is completed. With 99 percent of the votes counted as of Thursday evening, he led David McCormick by 1,100 votes or 0.1 percent. His lead has narrowed from about 2,600 votes or 0.2 percent as of late Tuesday evening. The final tally will land in automatic recount territory, but the recount is unlikely to change the outcome of the initial count.
That is my assessment. No one has called the race. It is too close. We apparently won’t have the initial count completed for a while yet.
As of last night, a Pennsylvania Department of State spokesman told Politico that an estimated 8,700 Republican mail-in and absentee ballots remained to be counted. The figure was “based on a comparison of vote totals to Republican ballots returned and information we received from counties throughout the afternoon.”
The McCormick campaign has enlisted Chuck Cooper to lead its legal efforts at this point. Cooper is the Washington lawyer who is probably the best in the business. Also of interest, Politico quotes Mike Pompeo predicting a McCormick win. According to Secretary Pompeo’s tweet yesterday afternoon: “Facts show that the counting of valid absentee ballots is very likely to put @DaveMcCormickPA on top in the PA Senate race. This is great news for Pennsylvania and for America.” Let it be, but I am dubious.
If Oz prevails, I think he will be a weak statewide candidate running against a lunatic leftist for a seat that is critical for Republicans to hold. If he were to win, however, he has promised to give up his Turkish citizenship. The correlative should be that if he loses he gives up his American citizenship.
There are two narrow paths to victory for a Republican running in Pennsylvania. My friend Jon Lerner traced them out in the 2016 National Review column “The Pennsylvania Upset: Trump and Toomey’s Different Paths to Victory.” Oz would presumably opt for the path Trump found in 2016 or perhaps a merger of the two over the rainbow.