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Russia suspended natural gas shipments to Bulgaria and Poland yesterday in response to increased arms shipments and sanctions by the West. EU leaders framed the move as an attempt to use gas as blackmail—Russian oil production could decline by nearly 17% due to the sanctions—while Russia claimed the two EU countries did not meet Russia’s demand to pay in rubles. In related news, Shell said it would no longer buy any refined oil products, including blended fuels, containing any Russian oil.

Overnight explosions across the Ukrainian border in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Kursk raised the possibility that the monthslong war might spread. Meanwhile, Russia claims to have captured two towns in the Donbas region and two villages in the Kharkiv region.

Separately, the US and Russia agreed to a prisoner swap. Former US Marine Trevor Reed, held in Russia since 2019, was released in exchange for jailed Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko. 

See updates on the war here.