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No one should be counting on election returns until the votes are actually cast seven months from now, but it is hard to recall an election cycle in which the storm clouds gathered so thick against one party as they are right now for Democrats. So it looks like we’ll need to start a series on this topic.
I was struck by the front page Wall Street Journal feature today about Democratic voters who are leaning increasingly Republican, mostly parents frustrated with the feckless Democrats who have sold out to the teachers unions on keeping schools closed. The story included a photo of Jennifer Loughran of New Jersey, who doesn’t look like the typical GOP voter I think. In fact she was an Obama-Biden voter in 2012. But last year she voted for unknown Republican Jack Ciattarelli against NJ Governor Phil Murphy, and may vote Republican this year, too:
Ms. Loughran, a 45-year-old skateboard instructor with red dip-dyed hair and a blue-collar upbringing, had speared an Obama-Biden sign into her suburban home’s lawn and waived a handmade placard at the Women’s March in New York during President Donald Trump’s first year in office. . .
Watching her daughter fall behind in virtual kindergarten, Ms. Loughran had grown so frustrated not knowing when her children would return to the classroom that she joined a group that attracted right-leaning parents in its school-reopening push. She was unhappy that Gov. Phil Murphy didn’t fight to reopen schools sooner, and she associated his fellow Democrats with mask mandates and restrictions. . .
The defection of once-loyal voters like Ms. Loughran—along with disapproval from independents—is among the challenges Democrats face in their bid to retain control of Congress and win state-level races in this November’s midterm elections. These voters say Democratic officials left pandemic restrictions in place too long and mishandled the health crisis, with devastating consequences for their children, while Republicans have generally pushed to minimize school closures and keep the economy open.
Interviews with New Jersey voters revealed that some Democrats’ breaks from their party last fall were neither flippant nor fleeting. . . Democratic voters who have broken from their party over Covid often describe decisions they reached only after wrestling with issues such as their support for abortion rights and opposition to gun control—political positions that have constituted the core of the party for years.
Meanwhile, more surveys show Democrats slipping further among hispanics. Our friends at Legal Insurrection report:
Support for Democrats is sinking like a rock across all demographics. A recent NBC poll shows a 30-point shift among “Hispanics, no degree” toward the GOP since 2018, a finding that should be resonating across Democrat politics with earth-shaking urgency.
Even MSNBC is panicking:
Of course the real takeaway from Kornacki’s analysis is that the 19th Amendment should be repealed.